Davis Cup Finals · RR · Hard · 16 Sep 2023
Jakub Mensik v Dusan Lajovic
53–34 in points · Jakub Mensik won
Why it went the way it did
Jakub Mensik won 10.2 more points than Dusan Lajovic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Dusan Lajovic's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.7, serve 1st execution −2.3, return execution −2.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jakub Mensik | Dusan Lajovic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +2.9 | +2.9 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −2.3 | −2.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.3 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.7 | +1.0 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −2.3 | −2.3 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −2.3 | −1.8 | −0.2 | +0.7 | −2.7 | −2.2 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.6 | −0.9 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.2 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.4 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −1.2 | −2.1 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +1.2 | +1.4 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +1.0 | +0.9 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.5 |
| All shots | ±0.0 | +1.4 | +2.0 | +3.3 | −0.2 | −0.5 | −6.2 | −6.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Jakub Mensik | Dusan Lajovic | Net, Jakub | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.7 | −2.2 | +4.0 | |
| 2 | +1.6 | −4.7 | +6.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jakub Mensik serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% 85% | 4% 100% | 39% 89% |
| 2 | 72% 92% | 11% 100% | 17% 67% |
Within sets +0.19 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Dusan Lajovic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% 71% | 17% 75% | 22% 60% |
| 2 | 57% 46% | 9% 100% | 35% 63% |
Within sets −0.34 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jakub Mensik
2.8 points left on the table across 120 shots 2.35 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit FH volley inside-out ×1; FH volley inside-in rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
Dusan Lajovic
3.0 points left on the table across 114 shots 2.67 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts