Guadalajara · SF · Hard · 22 Sep 2023
Maria Sakkari v Caroline Garcia
62–39 in points · Maria Sakkari won
Why it went the way it did
Maria Sakkari won 11.0 more points than Caroline Garcia relative to what the serve alone predicted. Caroline Garcia's biggest leaks: backhand execution −4.8, forehand execution −4.5, return execution −3.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Maria Sakkari | Caroline Garcia | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.2 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.4 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.6 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.4 | −1.5 | −1.2 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | −3.6 | −2.8 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +0.4 | −0.8 | −0.3 | −0.5 | +1.2 | −4.5 | −3.8 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +0.3 | −0.4 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −4.8 | −4.4 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.4 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.2 | −0.1 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.3 | −1.4 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.5 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.4 |
| All shots | −0.5 | +0.6 | −2.3 | −2.2 | −0.6 | +2.0 | −14.5 | −13.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Maria Sakkari | Caroline Garcia | Net, Maria | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.5 | −6.0 | +4.6 | |
| 2 | −0.7 | −7.1 | +6.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Maria Sakkari serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% 75% | 18% 100% | 54% 67% |
| 2 | 27% 71% | 31% 38% | 42% 73% |
Set to set +2.07 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.69 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Caroline Garcia serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 55% | 14% 75% | 48% 57% |
| 2 | 11% 0% | 22% 25% | 67% 33% |
Set to set +3.98 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +3.63 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Maria Sakkari
3.5 points left on the table across 109 shots 3.18 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
Caroline Garcia
3.8 points left on the table across 125 shots 3.06 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley down the line rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.20 pts