Astana · R16 · Hard · 30 Sep 2023
Dominic Thiem v Marcos Giron
98–94 in points · Dominic Thiem won
Why it went the way it did
Dominic Thiem won 3.2 more points than Marcos Giron relative to what the serve alone predicted. Marcos Giron's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.0, touch shot selection −1.2, serve 1st execution −0.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Dominic Thiem | Marcos Giron | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | −0.2 | −0.8 | −0.8 | +0.4 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −0.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +1.2 | +1.3 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.4 | −0.7 | −0.5 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +0.4 | +1.1 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +4.8 | +2.2 | +7.0 | −0.3 | +3.1 | +0.5 | +3.3 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.7 | +1.7 | +2.5 | −0.2 | −0.1 | +1.5 | +1.2 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −2.8 | −0.3 | −3.2 | +0.1 | −2.0 | −0.3 | −2.2 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +0.4 | +1.5 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −1.2 | +0.4 | −1.0 |
| All shots | +0.3 | +4.0 | +1.9 | +6.2 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +2.9 | +3.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Dominic Thiem | Marcos Giron | Net, Dominic | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.1 | +0.9 | +1.2 | |
| 2 | +2.1 | +4.6 | −2.5 | |
| 3 | +2.0 | −2.6 | +4.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Dominic Thiem serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% 75% | 7% 50% | 64% 78% |
| 2 | 58% 60% | 4% 0% | 38% 50% |
| 3 | 50% 68% | – | 50% 84% |
Set to set +0.95 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.25 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Marcos Giron serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 74% 71% | – | 26% 80% |
| 2 | 58% 62% | – | 42% 67% |
| 3 | 38% 71% | 2% 100% | 60% 59% |
Set to set +0.07 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.17 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Dominic Thiem
9.0 points left on the table across 322 shots 2.78 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×7; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.26 pts
Marcos Giron
8.4 points left on the table across 303 shots 2.76 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob through the middle ×2; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts