Shanghai Masters · R16 · Hard · 11 Oct 2023
Ugo Humbert v J J Wolf
56–20 in points · Ugo Humbert won
Why it went the way it did
Ugo Humbert won 18.9 more points than J J Wolf relative to what the serve alone predicted. J J Wolf's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.1, backhand execution −2.3, serve 2nd execution −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Ugo Humbert | J J Wolf | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +2.9 | +3.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | −1.5 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.1 | +2.1 | +2.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | +0.8 | +0.4 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +0.3 | +2.5 | +2.7 | −0.7 | +0.4 | −4.1 | −4.3 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | −0.5 | +2.1 | +1.3 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −2.3 | −3.3 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −0.2 | −1.3 | −0.5 | −1.9 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| All shots | −0.8 | −1.0 | +10.2 | +8.4 | −1.6 | −1.6 | −7.3 | −10.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Ugo Humbert | J J Wolf | Net, Ugo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +5.2 | −5.4 | +10.6 | |
| 2 | +3.2 | −5.1 | +8.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Ugo Humbert serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 100% | – | 53% 89% |
| 2 | 50% 89% | 6% 0% | 44% 100% |
Within sets −0.66 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
J J Wolf serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% 36% | 11% 50% | 28% 20% |
| 2 | 35% 63% | 13% 33% | 52% 42% |
Within sets −0.73 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Ugo Humbert
4.0 points left on the table across 102 shots 3.91 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH slice through the middle ×2; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.26 pts
J J Wolf
4.3 points left on the table across 104 shots 4.09 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.74 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH slice through the middle ×2; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts