Brisbane · R32 · Hard · 2 Jan 2024
Rafael Nadal v Dominic Thiem
61–39 in points · Rafael Nadal won
Why it went the way it did
Rafael Nadal won 12.2 more points than Dominic Thiem relative to what the serve alone predicted. Dominic Thiem's biggest leaks: backhand execution −3.0, forehand execution −1.8, return execution −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Rafael Nadal | Dominic Thiem | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.0 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.7 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.3 | −1.7 | −1.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.5 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +1.2 | +2.8 | +4.3 | +0.2 | +1.1 | −1.8 | −0.4 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.2 | +1.8 | +1.8 | −0.1 | +1.3 | −3.0 | −1.9 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −0.4 | +0.1 | −0.5 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.4 | −0.9 |
| Net | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +1.6 | +1.2 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −0.6 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.3 | +0.3 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +0.6 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +0.1 | −0.4 |
| All shots | +0.1 | +0.6 | +4.7 | +5.4 | +0.3 | +1.4 | −8.4 | −6.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Rafael Nadal | Dominic Thiem | Net, Rafael | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +6.6 | +0.4 | +6.2 | |
| 2 | −1.2 | −7.2 | +6.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Rafael Nadal serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% 88% | 11% 100% | 30% 88% |
| 2 | 47% 89% | 11% 100% | 42% 75% |
Within sets −0.28 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Dominic Thiem serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 56% | 3% 0% | 55% 76% |
| 2 | 44% 86% | 6% 0% | 50% 25% |
Set to set +0.35 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.84 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Rafael Nadal
4.9 points left on the table across 159 shots 3.08 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH crosscourt ×3; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.23 pts
Dominic Thiem
3.7 points left on the table across 167 shots 2.21 per 100 shots
- Return +1: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts