United Cup · QF · Hard · 4 Jan 2024
Hubert Hurkacz v Zhizhen Zhang
65–55 in points · Hubert Hurkacz won
Why it went the way it did
Hubert Hurkacz won 3.2 more points than Zhizhen Zhang relative to what the serve alone predicted. Zhizhen Zhang's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −2.2, slice shot selection −1.5, forehand execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Hubert Hurkacz | Zhizhen Zhang | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | +1.6 | +1.7 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −2.2 | −2.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.2 | −3.0 | −2.6 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +0.6 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +1.3 | +3.3 | +4.9 | +0.3 | +2.8 | −1.3 | +1.8 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.5 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.6 | −0.4 | +0.1 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.5 | −1.3 | −2.9 | −0.1 | −1.5 | −0.6 | −2.1 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.2 | +0.7 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.6 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −0.2 | −1.5 | +0.1 | −0.3 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
| All shots | +0.6 | −0.4 | +0.8 | +1.0 | +0.3 | +1.5 | −4.1 | −2.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Hubert Hurkacz | Zhizhen Zhang | Net, Hubert | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.1 | −0.7 | −0.4 | |
| 2 | +2.1 | −1.5 | +3.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Hubert Hurkacz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% 65% | 6% 50% | 46% 63% |
| 2 | 54% 73% | – | 46% 77% |
Set to set +4.29 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +2.55 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Zhizhen Zhang serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 50% | – | 45% 80% |
| 2 | 47% 67% | 3% 100% | 50% 56% |
Within sets +1.67 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Hubert Hurkacz
4.0 points left on the table across 178 shots 2.22 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob through the middle ×3; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Zhizhen Zhang
4.5 points left on the table across 182 shots 2.50 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash inside-in rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts