Australian Open · Q1 · Hard · 9 Jan 2024
Anna Bondar v Su Wei Hsieh
80–67 in points · Anna Bondar won
Why it went the way it did
Anna Bondar won 7.3 more points than Su Wei Hsieh relative to what the serve alone predicted. Su Wei Hsieh's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.3, serve 1st execution −2.2, touch shot selection −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Anna Bondar | Su Wei Hsieh | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +3.1 | +2.9 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −2.2 | −2.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.5 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.1 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.7 | +4.7 | +5.5 | +0.3 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.9 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +1.6 | +1.8 | +4.0 | +0.5 | +1.3 | +1.7 | +3.5 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +1.1 | −0.1 | +1.1 | +0.8 | +0.9 | +3.3 | +5.0 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −3.1 | +0.4 | −2.9 | +0.1 | −2.3 | −0.4 | −2.7 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.5 | −0.9 | −0.2 |
| Touch | +0.3 | −0.4 | −0.8 | −0.9 | +0.3 | −0.9 | +1.4 | +0.8 |
| All shots | +0.6 | +0.2 | +10.4 | +11.2 | +1.5 | −1.1 | +3.5 | +3.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Anna Bondar | Su Wei Hsieh | Net, Anna | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +6.2 | +3.5 | +2.7 | |
| 2 | +5.0 | +0.4 | +4.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Anna Bondar serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22% 67% | 29% 50% | 49% 75% |
| 2 | 30% 100% | 19% 100% | 52% 57% |
Set to set +0.75 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.62 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Su Wei Hsieh serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27% 67% | 30% 54% | 43% 58% |
| 2 | 29% 60% | 34% 67% | 37% 54% |
Set to set +0.20 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.54 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Anna Bondar
6.1 points left on the table across 261 shots 2.35 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
Su Wei Hsieh
4.7 points left on the table across 258 shots 1.82 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts