Australian Open · R128 · Hard · 14 Jan 2024
Thiago Seyboth Wild v Andrey Rublev
171–184 in points · Andrey Rublev won
Why it went the way it did
Andrey Rublev won 10.1 more points than Thiago Seyboth Wild relative to what the serve alone predicted. Thiago Seyboth Wild's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −7.0, serve 1st execution −3.0, touch shot selection −2.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Thiago Seyboth Wild | Andrey Rublev | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.8 | +0.1 | −3.0 | −2.0 | +0.6 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.4 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +2.1 | +2.0 |
| Return | −0.3 | −1.4 | +1.3 | −0.4 | +0.3 | +1.5 | −0.9 | +1.0 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +2.7 | +1.1 | +3.7 | +1.0 | +3.0 | +0.6 | +4.6 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −2.2 | −1.7 | +0.5 | +0.6 | −1.9 | −0.8 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −7.0 | +4.7 | −2.2 | +0.1 | −3.1 | +0.1 | −3.0 |
| Net | −0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +1.5 | +0.2 | +2.5 |
| Touch | −0.5 | −2.3 | +1.8 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.5 |
| All shots | −0.7 | −7.2 | +4.0 | −3.9 | +3.3 | +3.0 | ±0.0 | +6.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Thiago Seyboth Wild | Andrey Rublev | Net, Thiago | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −8.4 | −1.6 | −6.8 | |
| 2 | +1.2 | +2.1 | −0.8 | |
| 3 | −2.1 | +1.1 | −3.2 | |
| 4 | +5.8 | +0.4 | +5.4 | |
| 5 | −0.5 | +4.3 | −4.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Thiago Seyboth Wild serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 52% | – | 50% 57% |
| 2 | 47% 63% | 3% 0% | 50% 59% |
| 3 | 49% 52% | 2% 0% | 49% 74% |
| 4 | 42% 64% | 4% 100% | 54% 86% |
| 5 | 49% 68% | – | 51% 70% |
Set to set +0.37 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.36 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Andrey Rublev serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% 74% | – | 44% 67% |
| 2 | 56% 64% | – | 44% 55% |
| 3 | 37% 71% | – | 63% 75% |
| 4 | 54% 38% | 3% 0% | 44% 88% |
| 5 | 48% 81% | – | 52% 88% |
Set to set +0.05 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.12 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Thiago Seyboth Wild
14.0 points left on the table across 471 shots 2.97 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH down the line ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
Andrey Rublev
10.1 points left on the table across 504 shots 2.00 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×7; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts