Cleveland CH · R16 · Hard · 1 Feb 2024
Emilio Nava v Patrick Brady
58–39 in points · Emilio Nava won
Why it went the way it did
Emilio Nava won 10.5 more points than Patrick Brady relative to what the serve alone predicted. Patrick Brady's biggest leaks: forehand execution −5.2, serve 2nd execution −1.1, slice shot selection −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Emilio Nava | Patrick Brady | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +2.4 | +2.3 | −0.8 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −1.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.0 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.6 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.3 | −3.8 | −2.4 | −0.4 | +1.3 | −5.2 | −4.3 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +1.5 | +1.8 | −0.2 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | +0.5 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −0.7 | +1.7 | +1.1 | −0.3 | −0.9 | +0.2 | −1.0 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −0.9 | −0.7 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.4 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +1.6 | +2.2 | −1.7 | +1.7 | −8.3 | −8.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Emilio Nava | Patrick Brady | Net, Emilio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.6 | −4.0 | +5.6 | |
| 2 | +0.6 | −4.3 | +4.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Emilio Nava serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 92% | 13% 33% | 38% 89% |
| 2 | 52% 73% | 10% 100% | 38% 75% |
Within sets +0.11 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Patrick Brady serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24% 50% | 36% 56% | 40% 70% |
| 2 | 30% 75% | 44% 50% | 26% 43% |
Within sets −0.55 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Emilio Nava
4.2 points left on the table across 167 shots 2.54 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your backhand side hit BH lob through the middle ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×2; BH down the line rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Patrick Brady
4.9 points left on the table across 152 shots 3.21 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH down the line rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts