Linz · SF · Hard · 3 Feb 2024
Jelena Ostapenko v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
65–45 in points · Jelena Ostapenko won
Why it went the way it did
Jelena Ostapenko won 8.4 more points than Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova's biggest leaks: slice execution −1.0, serve 1st execution −1.0, backhand execution −0.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jelena Ostapenko | Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +3.9 | +4.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.1 | −2.5 | −2.2 | +0.3 | −0.2 | +1.3 | +1.4 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +1.3 | +0.2 | +0.7 | +0.3 | +1.2 |
| Backhand | +0.5 | +0.5 | +1.6 | +2.6 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −0.6 | −0.2 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.2 | −0.7 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −1.0 | −1.7 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.4 | +1.6 | +2.3 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.5 | +0.2 | −0.4 |
| All shots | +1.7 | +0.7 | +5.5 | +8.0 | +0.4 | −0.2 | −0.6 | −0.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Jelena Ostapenko | Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova | Net, Jelena | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +5.1 | +0.4 | +4.7 | |
| 2 | +2.9 | −0.8 | +3.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jelena Ostapenko serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 53% | 3% 0% | 55% 73% |
| 2 | 31% 75% | 8% 100% | 62% 81% |
Set to set +0.88 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.81 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 60% | 14% 33% | 41% 33% |
| 2 | 45% 70% | 23% 60% | 32% 71% |
Within sets +3.38 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jelena Ostapenko
2.3 points left on the table across 117 shots 1.93 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH crosscourt ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
3.0 points left on the table across 111 shots 2.67 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH crosscourt ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH lob through the middle ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts