Cordoba · F · Clay · 11 Feb 2024
Luciano Darderi v Facundo Bagnis
66–44 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Luciano Darderi won 12.2 more points than Facundo Bagnis relative to what the serve alone predicted. Facundo Bagnis's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.6, touch execution −2.2, forehand execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Luciano Darderi | Facundo Bagnis | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.4 | −1.7 | −1.4 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.9 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.6 | +1.0 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −1.1 | −1.7 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +1.5 | +0.4 | +2.2 | +0.7 | +2.1 | −2.1 | +0.7 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | −0.2 | +2.7 | +2.1 | −0.3 | −0.8 | −2.1 | −3.2 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −3.0 | −1.1 | −4.2 | −0.1 | −2.6 | −0.6 | −3.2 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.6 | +0.3 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −2.2 | −1.8 |
| Other | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.3 | −1.5 | +4.4 | +2.6 | +0.5 | −1.0 | −9.1 | −9.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Luciano Darderi | Facundo Bagnis | Net, Luciano | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.8 | −6.2 | +7.0 | |
| 2 | +1.8 | −3.4 | +5.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Luciano Darderi serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26% 83% | 26% 50% | 48% 82% |
| 2 | 30% 75% | 11% 100% | 59% 56% |
Within sets +0.73 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Facundo Bagnis serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 43% | 20% 33% | 33% 20% |
| 2 | 36% 50% | 18% 63% | 47% 52% |
Within sets −0.01 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Luciano Darderi
5.5 points left on the table across 235 shots 2.34 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
Facundo Bagnis
5.3 points left on the table across 234 shots 2.28 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×2; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts