Buenos Aires · F · Clay · 18 Feb 2024
Facundo Diaz Acosta v Nicolas Jarry
69–55 in points · Facundo Diaz Acosta won
Why it went the way it did
Facundo Diaz Acosta won 5.1 more points than Nicolas Jarry relative to what the serve alone predicted. Nicolas Jarry's biggest leaks: forehand execution −1.8, return execution −1.3, slice execution −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Facundo Diaz Acosta | Nicolas Jarry | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.1 | +0.6 | −0.6 | +0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.2 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.1 | +2.0 | +2.2 | +0.1 | +0.4 | −1.3 | −0.8 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.6 | +2.9 | +0.1 | +2.7 | −1.8 | +0.9 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | −0.1 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −0.7 | −0.8 | −1.2 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.5 | +1.3 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −1.1 | −1.6 |
| Net | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +2.0 | +2.4 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| All shots | −0.2 | −0.8 | +5.8 | +4.8 | +0.8 | +2.5 | −3.6 | −0.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Facundo Diaz Acosta | Nicolas Jarry | Net, Facundo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.4 | −1.0 | +2.4 | |
| 2 | +3.4 | +0.8 | +2.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Facundo Diaz Acosta serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 69% | 14% 50% | 41% 92% |
| 2 | 39% 63% | 15% 67% | 46% 68% |
Set to set +0.40 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.43 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Nicolas Jarry serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 64% | 15% 100% | 30% 67% |
| 2 | 44% 40% | 6% 50% | 50% 76% |
Within sets +0.08 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Facundo Diaz Acosta
6.0 points left on the table across 210 shots 2.86 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×2; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
Nicolas Jarry
4.7 points left on the table across 227 shots 2.08 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net, you at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts