Dubai · R16 · Hard · 28 Feb 2024
Andy Murray v Ugo Humbert
45–65 in points · Ugo Humbert won
Why it went the way it did
Ugo Humbert won 13.6 more points than Andy Murray relative to what the serve alone predicted. Andy Murray's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −4.1, slice direction choices −1.1, backhand execution −1.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Andy Murray | Ugo Humbert | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.7 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +1.4 | +1.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +1.0 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.8 | +1.2 | +0.3 | −0.2 | +0.2 | +1.8 | +1.9 |
| Forehand | −0.5 | +1.0 | −0.9 | −0.5 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +0.9 | +1.7 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | −0.3 | −1.0 | −1.5 | −0.1 | −0.8 | +2.6 | +1.6 |
| Slice | −1.1 | −4.1 | −0.1 | −5.3 | −0.2 | −1.3 | −0.2 | −1.7 |
| Net | −0.3 | +0.1 | +1.2 | +1.0 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 |
| Touch | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.4 | −0.2 | −0.2 | +2.1 | +1.8 |
| All shots | −2.1 | −4.2 | +0.3 | −6.0 | −0.7 | −1.3 | +9.6 | +7.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Andy Murray | Ugo Humbert | Net, Andy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.9 | +6.1 | −10.0 | |
| 2 | −2.1 | +1.5 | −3.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Andy Murray serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 64% | – | 62% 43% |
| 2 | 43% 77% | – | 57% 53% |
Set to set +0.56 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.25 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Ugo Humbert serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 71% 100% | 6% 0% | 24% 100% |
| 2 | 69% 83% | – | 31% 63% |
Within sets +0.82 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Andy Murray
8.1 points left on the table across 190 shots 4.26 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.87 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH slice through the middle ×5; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×3; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
Ugo Humbert
6.5 points left on the table across 205 shots 3.15 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts