Indian Wells Masters · R64 · Hard · 9 Mar 2024
Tallon Griekspoor v Yannick Hanfmann
60–45 in points · Tallon Griekspoor won
Why it went the way it did
Tallon Griekspoor won 8.3 more points than Yannick Hanfmann relative to what the serve alone predicted. Yannick Hanfmann's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.2, slice shot selection −3.7, slice execution −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Tallon Griekspoor | Yannick Hanfmann | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.7 | +1.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.9 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.2 | +3.0 | +3.2 | −0.2 | +0.1 | +2.1 | +2.0 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +1.0 | −1.5 | −0.8 | −0.5 | +1.4 | −4.2 | −3.3 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +0.4 | −0.5 | +0.1 | +2.1 | +1.7 |
| Slice | −0.5 | −3.6 | +1.8 | −2.3 | −0.8 | −3.7 | −0.9 | −5.4 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.3 | −0.2 | +0.6 | −0.2 | +0.2 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.2 |
| All shots | −1.2 | −2.5 | +7.7 | +4.0 | −2.3 | −1.4 | −0.5 | −4.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Tallon Griekspoor | Yannick Hanfmann | Net, Tallon | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.7 | −0.4 | +3.1 | |
| 2 | +1.3 | −3.9 | +5.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Tallon Griekspoor serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 64% | 11% 67% | 48% 85% |
| 2 | 61% 86% | – | 39% 56% |
Within sets −0.85 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Yannick Hanfmann serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 64% | 10% 0% | 38% 75% |
| 2 | 47% 56% | 9% 33% | 44% 60% |
Within sets +0.89 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Tallon Griekspoor
6.2 points left on the table across 184 shots 3.39 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.62 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH slice through the middle ×3; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×4; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
Yannick Hanfmann
8.0 points left on the table across 189 shots 4.24 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.87 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×5; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts