Indian Wells Masters · R32 · Hard · 10 Mar 2024
Felix Auger Aliassime v Carlos Alcaraz
38–58 in points · Carlos Alcaraz won
Why it went the way it did
Carlos Alcaraz won 11.2 more points than Felix Auger Aliassime relative to what the serve alone predicted. Felix Auger Aliassime's biggest leaks: backhand execution −2.7, net execution −2.1, serve 2nd execution −2.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Felix Auger Aliassime | Carlos Alcaraz | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.4 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.0 | −2.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.7 | −1.1 | −0.4 | +0.1 | +0.6 | −1.7 | −1.1 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +1.9 | −0.9 | +0.8 | +0.4 | +2.2 | +1.3 | +3.9 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | +0.6 | −2.7 | −1.8 | −0.1 | +0.8 | +1.1 | +1.7 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.2 | −0.9 | +0.1 | −0.4 | +0.5 | +0.2 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −2.1 | −1.7 | +0.1 | +0.3 | −0.3 | +0.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.2 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.2 |
| All shots | −0.1 | +2.7 | −9.1 | −6.6 | +0.4 | +3.1 | +1.1 | +4.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Felix Auger Aliassime | Carlos Alcaraz | Net, Felix | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.3 | +4.4 | −5.7 | |
| 2 | −5.3 | +0.2 | −5.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Felix Auger Aliassime serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 33% | 20% 25% | 35% 86% |
| 2 | 56% 56% | 16% 20% | 28% 67% |
Within sets +0.80 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Carlos Alcaraz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 70% | 23% 80% | 32% 86% |
| 2 | 36% 75% | 27% 100% | 36% 50% |
Within sets +0.45 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Felix Auger Aliassime
3.8 points left on the table across 163 shots 2.35 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net, you at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, body, deuce court hit BH crosscourt ×3; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Long rally, 9+: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash inside-in rates higher · 0.18 pts
Carlos Alcaraz
3.0 points left on the table across 162 shots 1.86 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts