Miami · R32 · Hard · 23 Mar 2024
Aryna Sabalenka v Anhelina Kalinina
78–80 in points · Anhelina Kalinina won
Why it went the way it did
Anhelina Kalinina won 0.6 more points than Aryna Sabalenka relative to what the serve alone predicted. Aryna Sabalenka's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.1, serve 2nd execution −1.5, backhand execution −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Aryna Sabalenka | Anhelina Kalinina | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.4 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | −1.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.0 |
| Return | +0.4 | +0.2 | −0.4 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.7 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +1.9 | +1.4 | +3.6 | −0.1 | +1.4 | +4.8 | +6.1 |
| Backhand | +0.7 | +0.1 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.3 | +0.6 | +0.8 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −3.1 | +0.7 | −2.4 | −0.1 | −2.6 | +0.1 | −2.5 |
| Net | +0.4 | +0.5 | +1.1 | +2.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +1.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.7 | +0.8 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +2.1 | −0.4 | +0.8 | +2.4 | −0.8 | −2.0 | +5.7 | +3.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Aryna Sabalenka | Anhelina Kalinina | Net, Aryna | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.7 | +0.6 | −1.3 | |
| 2 | +6.1 | +0.2 | +5.9 | |
| 3 | −3.0 | +2.1 | −5.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Aryna Sabalenka serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% 50% | 17% 33% | 26% 56% |
| 2 | 54% 69% | 4% 0% | 42% 80% |
| 3 | 53% 11% | 12% 50% | 35% 50% |
Set to set +0.08 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.15 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Anhelina Kalinina serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% 50% | 29% 45% | 34% 62% |
| 2 | 27% 33% | 27% 50% | 45% 50% |
| 3 | 45% 30% | 23% 80% | 32% 86% |
Set to set +0.46 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.08 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Aryna Sabalenka
4.9 points left on the table across 280 shots 1.74 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH down the line rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH drop shot crosscourt ×1; FH drop shot down the line rates higher · 0.18 pts
Anhelina Kalinina
6.4 points left on the table across 245 shots 2.63 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts