Miami Masters · R16 · Hard · 26 Mar 2024
Matteo Arnaldi v Tomas Machac
48–60 in points · Tomas Machac won
Why it went the way it did
Tomas Machac won 4.2 more points than Matteo Arnaldi relative to what the serve alone predicted. Matteo Arnaldi's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.0, slice shot selection −1.1, touch shot selection −1.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Matteo Arnaldi | Tomas Machac | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −2.0 | −2.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −0.6 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +1.2 | +1.6 |
| Forehand | −0.5 | +1.4 | −3.0 | −2.1 | −0.5 | +1.2 | −0.3 | +0.3 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.2 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.9 | +1.3 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.5 | −0.9 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.6 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −1.0 | +0.3 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.8 | −1.1 |
| All shots | +0.2 | +0.4 | −3.5 | −2.9 | −0.4 | +1.2 | +0.4 | +1.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Matteo Arnaldi | Tomas Machac | Net, Matteo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.3 | +0.5 | −1.8 | |
| 2 | −1.6 | +0.8 | −2.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Matteo Arnaldi serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 46% | 4% 100% | 44% 64% |
| 2 | 57% 62% | – | 43% 70% |
Within sets −1.38 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Tomas Machac serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 82% | 3% 0% | 64% 57% |
| 2 | 26% 86% | 15% 75% | 59% 69% |
Set to set −0.89 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.06 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Matteo Arnaldi
3.9 points left on the table across 177 shots 2.20 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob through the middle ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
Tomas Machac
4.1 points left on the table across 162 shots 2.54 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts