Sao Leopoldo CH · R32 · Clay · 26 Mar 2024
Alvaro Guillen Meza v Camilo Ugo Carabelli
91–94 in points · Camilo Ugo Carabelli won
Why it went the way it did
Alvaro Guillen Meza won 0.8 more points than Camilo Ugo Carabelli relative to what the serve alone predicted. Camilo Ugo Carabelli's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −6.2, forehand execution −4.2, touch shot selection −1.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Alvaro Guillen Meza | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.9 | −1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.8 | −1.8 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.3 | +2.8 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.3 | +2.5 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +6.8 | −1.1 | +6.1 | −0.7 | +3.8 | −4.2 | −1.1 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −3.1 | −3.6 | −0.2 | −0.1 | +3.0 | +2.7 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −4.1 | −1.2 | −5.1 | +0.1 | −6.2 | +0.8 | −5.4 |
| Net | +0.5 | +0.6 | −0.3 | +0.7 | +0.1 | +0.3 | −0.4 | −0.1 |
| Touch | +0.2 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −1.0 | +2.3 | +1.1 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.4 | +0.2 | −0.3 |
| All shots | +1.3 | +4.0 | −6.6 | −1.3 | −1.2 | −2.7 | +1.8 | −2.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Alvaro Guillen Meza | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Net, Alvaro | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.0 | +1.3 | −2.3 | |
| 2 | +2.7 | −2.5 | +5.2 | |
| 3 | −2.9 | −0.8 | −2.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Alvaro Guillen Meza serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 50% | – | 63% 60% |
| 2 | 43% 70% | – | 57% 62% |
| 3 | 54% 60% | – | 46% 69% |
Set to set +0.41 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.17 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Camilo Ugo Carabelli serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 56% | 8% 33% | 50% 74% |
| 2 | 45% 47% | 9% 67% | 45% 47% |
| 3 | 55% 59% | 19% 83% | 26% 88% |
Set to set −0.57 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.76 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Alvaro Guillen Meza
11.3 points left on the table across 470 shots 2.41 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.65 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.55 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
11.0 points left on the table across 438 shots 2.52 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×21; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.81 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×13; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts