Munich · R32 · Clay · 15 Apr 2024
Alejandro Moro Canas v Dominic Thiem
72–62 in points · Alejandro Moro Canas won
Why it went the way it did
Alejandro Moro Canas won 2.6 more points than Dominic Thiem relative to what the serve alone predicted. Dominic Thiem's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −6.8, forehand execution −5.7, serve 1st execution −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Alejandro Moro Canas | Dominic Thiem | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.5 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −1.8 | −1.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +2.7 | +2.9 | −0.2 | −0.4 | +1.7 | +1.1 |
| Forehand | −0.8 | +2.0 | −4.6 | −3.4 | +0.6 | +1.8 | −5.7 | −3.3 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | −1.2 | +1.5 | +0.3 | −0.6 | −0.6 | +1.3 | +0.1 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −3.5 | −2.9 | −6.6 | −0.4 | −6.8 | +2.6 | −4.5 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +1.3 | +2.0 | +0.1 | +0.7 | +0.4 | +1.2 |
| Touch | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.8 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +1.0 |
| All shots | −0.9 | −1.8 | −0.8 | −3.5 | −0.1 | −5.3 | −0.7 | −6.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Alejandro Moro Canas | Dominic Thiem | Net, Alejandro | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.3 | −1.5 | +1.8 | |
| 2 | −3.8 | −4.7 | +0.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Alejandro Moro Canas serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63% 50% | 9% 67% | 28% 67% |
| 2 | 51% 57% | 20% 56% | 29% 69% |
Set to set +0.17 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.31 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Dominic Thiem serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 47% | – | 50% 53% |
| 2 | 52% 36% | 4% 0% | 44% 83% |
Set to set −3.36 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −3.31 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Alejandro Moro Canas
9.1 points left on the table across 330 shots 2.75 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 1.12 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts
Dominic Thiem
9.5 points left on the table across 343 shots 2.78 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH down the line rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts