Madrid Masters · R128 · Clay · 24 Apr 2024
Corentin Moutet v Juncheng Shang
140–150 in points · Juncheng Shang won
Why it went the way it did
Juncheng Shang won 5.5 more points than Corentin Moutet relative to what the serve alone predicted. Corentin Moutet's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −11.5, forehand execution −3.0, return shot selection −3.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Corentin Moutet | Juncheng Shang | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −1.1 | −0.3 | −2.9 | −4.3 | −1.2 | −0.1 | −1.7 | −3.1 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.2 | −0.1 | +2.6 | +2.4 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.7 |
| Return | −0.4 | −3.0 | +2.7 | −0.7 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.8 | +1.4 |
| Forehand | +0.9 | +5.9 | −3.0 | +3.8 | −0.5 | +5.9 | −1.1 | +4.3 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.5 | −0.2 | +0.2 | +3.0 | +3.0 |
| Slice | +1.3 | −11.5 | +2.5 | −7.7 | +0.1 | −5.2 | −0.8 | −5.9 |
| Net | +0.2 | +1.1 | −0.8 | +0.4 | −0.2 | +1.4 | −0.6 | +0.6 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −0.9 | −1.4 | −2.5 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −1.3 | −1.8 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.2 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +0.9 | −9.0 | −0.1 | −8.2 | −1.8 | +1.6 | −2.4 | −2.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Corentin Moutet | Juncheng Shang | Net, Corentin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.3 | +0.9 | −0.6 | |
| 2 | −8.4 | −2.7 | −5.7 | |
| 3 | −0.1 | −0.9 | +0.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Corentin Moutet serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 59% | 31% 61% | 32% 63% |
| 2 | 23% 86% | 35% 45% | 42% 38% |
| 3 | 37% 59% | 24% 64% | 39% 72% |
Set to set −0.73 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.26 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Juncheng Shang serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% 65% | 38% 70% | 30% 50% |
| 2 | 40% 70% | 32% 88% | 28% 57% |
| 3 | 39% 68% | 32% 44% | 30% 76% |
Set to set −0.82 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.08 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Corentin Moutet
14.8 points left on the table across 599 shots 2.47 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.64 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.41 pts
Juncheng Shang
19.7 points left on the table across 639 shots 3.08 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×12; FH inside-out rates higher · 1.53 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×10; FH inside-in rates higher · 1.01 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×8; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.94 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×13; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.70 pts