Madrid · R128 · Clay · 24 Apr 2024
Sara Errani v Caroline Wozniacki
109–107 in points · Sara Errani won
Why it went the way it did
Sara Errani won 0.1 more points than Caroline Wozniacki relative to what the serve alone predicted. Caroline Wozniacki's biggest leaks: touch shot selection −2.3, serve 1st execution −1.9, slice shot selection −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Sara Errani | Caroline Wozniacki | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −2.1 | ±0.0 | +2.9 | +0.8 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.9 | −2.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.7 | +1.7 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.2 | +2.9 | +3.4 | +0.5 | +0.7 | +7.2 | +8.4 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +3.7 | +7.1 | +11.0 | +1.1 | +3.5 | +1.7 | +6.3 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +2.6 | +7.1 | +9.6 | +2.8 | +0.8 | +7.4 | +11.0 |
| Slice | −0.7 | −9.2 | +4.4 | −5.6 | +0.1 | −1.5 | −0.5 | −2.0 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.3 | +2.2 | +2.5 | +0.5 | +1.2 | +0.7 | +2.4 |
| Touch | +0.4 | −1.8 | +2.1 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | −2.3 | −0.7 | −2.9 |
| Other | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.6 |
| All shots | −2.2 | −4.4 | +28.8 | +22.3 | +4.9 | +2.2 | +15.0 | +22.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Sara Errani | Caroline Wozniacki | Net, Sara | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.1 | +5.7 | −4.6 | |
| 2 | +12.8 | +10.2 | +2.7 | |
| 3 | +8.3 | +6.3 | +2.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Sara Errani serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28% 36% | 65% 38% | 8% 67% |
| 2 | 18% 29% | 63% 80% | 20% 38% |
| 3 | 25% 89% | 67% 38% | 8% 33% |
Set to set −0.53 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.02 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Caroline Wozniacki serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 53% | 17% 40% | 33% 50% |
| 2 | 38% 31% | 21% 86% | 41% 64% |
| 3 | 39% 50% | 36% 46% | 25% 33% |
Set to set −0.54 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.90 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Sara Errani
14.9 points left on the table across 576 shots 2.58 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×23; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.99 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice down the line ×9; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.68 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×12; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.63 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×10; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
Caroline Wozniacki
9.0 points left on the table across 622 shots 1.44 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH crosscourt ×12; BH down the line rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts