Rome Masters · R128 · Clay · 8 May 2024
Fabian Marozsan v Alexander Shevchenko
42–61 in points · Alexander Shevchenko won
Why it went the way it did
Alexander Shevchenko won 11.0 more points than Fabian Marozsan relative to what the serve alone predicted. Fabian Marozsan's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −5.2, forehand execution −1.9, slice direction choices −0.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Fabian Marozsan | Alexander Shevchenko | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +1.5 | +1.5 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.2 |
| Return | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +2.7 | +2.6 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +3.3 | +3.4 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +1.8 | −1.9 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +1.4 | +2.3 | +3.9 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | −0.5 | +1.3 | +0.7 | −0.4 | −0.7 | +4.1 | +3.0 |
| Slice | −0.6 | −5.2 | +1.8 | −4.0 | −0.2 | −2.1 | +0.3 | −2.0 |
| Net | −0.3 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.1 |
| Touch | −0.1 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.6 |
| All shots | −0.5 | −3.4 | +3.4 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −1.1 | +12.1 | +10.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Fabian Marozsan | Alexander Shevchenko | Net, Fabian | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.4 | +5.7 | −6.2 | |
| 2 | −0.1 | +4.8 | −4.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Fabian Marozsan serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% 50% | 3% 100% | 39% 50% |
| 2 | 44% 50% | 4% 100% | 52% 43% |
Set to set +0.06 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.86 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Alexander Shevchenko serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 67% 79% | – | 33% 71% |
| 2 | 46% 64% | 8% 50% | 46% 73% |
Within sets +0.17 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Fabian Marozsan
7.8 points left on the table across 225 shots 3.46 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×5; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.79 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.62 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×5; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH slice through the middle ×2; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.26 pts
Alexander Shevchenko
7.3 points left on the table across 238 shots 3.07 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.98 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH down the line rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return +1: slice to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.32 pts