Rome · R64 · Clay · 10 May 2024
Danielle Collins v Anna Blinkova
36–31 in points · Danielle Collins won
Why it went the way it did
Danielle Collins won 2.1 more points than Anna Blinkova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Anna Blinkova's biggest leaks: return execution −1.3, slice shot selection −0.8, serve 2nd execution −0.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Danielle Collins | Anna Blinkova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −0.8 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.7 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.5 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.1 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +0.1 | +0.8 | −0.2 | +0.8 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +1.1 | +1.6 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.3 | −1.1 |
| Net | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.4 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +1.1 | +0.7 | +0.2 | +2.1 | +0.3 | +0.6 | −0.9 | ±0.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Danielle Collins | Anna Blinkova | Net, Danielle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.6 | −1.7 | +2.2 | |
| 2 | +1.5 | +1.6 | −0.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Danielle Collins serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 50% | 4% 100% | 42% 64% |
| 2 | 45% 40% | 18% 100% | 36% 50% |
Within sets ±0.00 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Anna Blinkova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 54% | 30% 44% | 27% 50% |
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Danielle Collins
1.4 points left on the table across 89 shots 1.61 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.10 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH down the line ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.09 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.09 pts
Anna Blinkova
1.8 points left on the table across 88 shots 2.04 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts