Rome Masters · QF · Clay · 15 May 2024
Alejandro Tabilo v Zhizhen Zhang
67–57 in points · Alejandro Tabilo won
Why it went the way it did
Alejandro Tabilo won 4.5 more points than Zhizhen Zhang relative to what the serve alone predicted. Zhizhen Zhang's biggest leaks: return execution −1.9, serve 1st execution −1.3, slice shot selection −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Alejandro Tabilo | Zhizhen Zhang | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.4 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −1.3 | −1.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| Return | −0.6 | −1.3 | +0.3 | −1.7 | +0.3 | −0.5 | −1.9 | −2.0 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +0.8 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +0.3 | +1.2 | +0.9 | +2.5 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +1.9 | +2.5 | +0.1 | −0.4 | +3.2 | +2.9 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −2.0 | +1.2 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −1.2 | −1.1 | −2.6 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.8 | +1.4 | +2.1 | +0.2 | +0.4 | −1.1 | −0.5 |
| Touch | −0.1 | +0.6 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +0.2 | −0.3 |
| All shots | −1.1 | −0.6 | +4.6 | +3.0 | +0.5 | −0.8 | −1.2 | −1.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Alejandro Tabilo | Zhizhen Zhang | Net, Alejandro | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.7 | −4.8 | +3.0 | |
| 2 | +4.7 | +3.2 | +1.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Alejandro Tabilo serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% 72% | 28% 67% | 16% 80% |
| 2 | 47% 60% | 13% 25% | 41% 85% |
Set to set +0.54 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.30 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Zhizhen Zhang serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 67% 63% | 13% 67% | 21% 60% |
| 2 | 50% 67% | 17% 83% | 33% 42% |
Within sets −1.13 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Alejandro Tabilo
5.9 points left on the table across 201 shots 2.96 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
Zhizhen Zhang
4.5 points left on the table across 201 shots 2.22 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drop shot to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts