Rome Masters · SF · Clay · 17 May 2024
Nicolas Jarry v Tommy Paul
103–103 in points · Nicolas Jarry won
Why it went the way it did
Tommy Paul won 3.6 more points than Nicolas Jarry relative to what the serve alone predicted. Nicolas Jarry's biggest leaks: forehand execution −7.7, backhand execution −5.7, slice shot selection −3.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Nicolas Jarry | Tommy Paul | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | +0.1 | +1.7 | +1.9 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.8 | −2.2 | −1.2 | −0.1 | −2.0 | +0.8 | −1.3 |
| Forehand | +0.8 | +4.8 | −7.7 | −2.1 | +0.4 | +2.9 | −4.4 | −1.1 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | +0.3 | −5.7 | −5.1 | +0.3 | +0.9 | −2.4 | −1.2 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −3.3 | −3.3 | −6.2 | +0.1 | −4.8 | −0.9 | −5.6 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.7 | −2.5 | −1.6 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.4 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.4 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +2.0 | +3.5 | −18.6 | −13.0 | +0.6 | −3.2 | −6.9 | −9.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Nicolas Jarry | Tommy Paul | Net, Nicolas | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.5 | −6.3 | +2.8 | |
| 2 | −6.9 | −0.5 | −6.4 | |
| 3 | −2.6 | −2.7 | +0.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Nicolas Jarry serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 58% | 10% 67% | 52% 75% |
| 2 | 47% 50% | 9% 50% | 45% 62% |
| 3 | 53% 81% | 10% 50% | 38% 47% |
Set to set +0.36 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.60 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Tommy Paul serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 55% | 24% 43% | 38% 73% |
| 2 | 51% 78% | 9% 67% | 40% 64% |
| 3 | 63% 67% | 17% 25% | 21% 100% |
Set to set +0.38 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.58 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Nicolas Jarry
7.5 points left on the table across 350 shots 2.13 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.65 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.55 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.39 pts
Tommy Paul
8.9 points left on the table across 348 shots 2.56 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.82 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.32 pts