Roland Garros · Q2 · Clay · 22 May 2024
Dominika Salkova v Raluka Serban
119–114 in points · Raluka Serban won
Why it went the way it did
Dominika Salkova won 2.5 more points than Raluka Serban relative to what the serve alone predicted. Raluka Serban's biggest leaks: backhand execution −2.6, slice execution −1.7, touch shot selection −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Dominika Salkova | Raluka Serban | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −1.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −1.1 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −2.1 | −2.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.5 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.6 | −2.2 | −1.8 | +0.9 | +1.2 | +1.3 | +3.4 |
| Forehand | +1.3 | +5.0 | +5.7 | +12.0 | +1.3 | +6.2 | +2.9 | +10.4 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +1.6 | +3.6 | +5.3 | +0.6 | +1.3 | −2.6 | −0.7 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −2.5 | +0.5 | −2.3 | +0.1 | −1.0 | −1.7 | −2.5 |
| Net | +0.4 | +0.7 | +0.2 | +1.4 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +1.2 | +2.0 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −1.7 | +0.3 | −1.5 | −0.1 | −1.5 | −1.1 | −2.6 |
| All shots | +0.1 | +3.8 | +6.0 | +9.9 | +2.2 | +6.7 | −1.6 | +7.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Dominika Salkova | Raluka Serban | Net, Dominika | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.4 | −1.5 | +3.9 | |
| 2 | +3.5 | +4.6 | −1.1 | |
| 3 | +4.0 | +4.3 | −0.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Dominika Salkova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% 67% | 38% 70% | 27% 71% |
| 2 | 36% 33% | 44% 45% | 20% 20% |
| 3 | 31% 47% | 44% 44% | 25% 73% |
Set to set +0.84 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.51 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Raluka Serban serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 56% | 29% 71% | 33% 38% |
| 2 | 49% 50% | 34% 29% | 17% 71% |
| 3 | 42% 57% | 45% 44% | 13% 71% |
Set to set −1.29 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.50 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Dominika Salkova
11.4 points left on the table across 512 shots 2.22 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×13; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH down the line rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
Raluka Serban
10.0 points left on the table across 503 shots 1.98 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×14; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts