Roland Garros · Q2 · Clay · 22 May 2024
Olga Danilovic v Kimberly Birrell
82–65 in points · Olga Danilovic won
Why it went the way it did
Olga Danilovic won 9.6 more points than Kimberly Birrell relative to what the serve alone predicted. Kimberly Birrell's biggest leaks: return execution −5.5, slice shot selection −1.4, serve 2nd execution −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Olga Danilovic | Kimberly Birrell | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.9 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.3 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.5 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.4 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.2 | +1.1 | +1.1 | +0.2 | +0.7 | −5.5 | −4.6 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +3.2 | +3.9 | +7.5 | +0.7 | +2.4 | −1.0 | +2.1 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.8 | +2.2 | +3.2 | −0.2 | +0.5 | +6.4 | +6.8 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −1.8 | −0.2 | −1.8 | −0.2 | −1.4 | −0.3 | −1.8 |
| Net | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −0.7 | +0.3 | +0.7 | +0.1 | +1.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +1.0 | +2.5 | +7.8 | +11.3 | +0.2 | +2.9 | −1.4 | +1.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Olga Danilovic | Kimberly Birrell | Net, Olga | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.5 | −0.7 | +3.1 | |
| 2 | +8.9 | +2.4 | +6.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Olga Danilovic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 70% | 19% 63% | 33% 57% |
| 2 | 36% 63% | 18% 50% | 45% 100% |
Set to set −2.21 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.56 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Kimberly Birrell serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23% 63% | 46% 50% | 31% 64% |
| 2 | 40% 58% | 33% 38% | 27% 62% |
Set to set −0.60 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.31 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Olga Danilovic
6.3 points left on the table across 317 shots 1.99 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
Kimberly Birrell
6.4 points left on the table across 311 shots 2.07 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts