Strasbourg · R16 · Clay · 22 May 2024
Danielle Collins v Katerina Siniakova
58–32 in points · Danielle Collins won
Why it went the way it did
Danielle Collins won 12.6 more points than Katerina Siniakova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Katerina Siniakova's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.5, slice shot selection −2.0, touch execution −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Danielle Collins | Katerina Siniakova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.3 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 |
| Return | +0.3 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −0.5 | +0.1 | −1.0 | −0.2 | −1.1 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +0.7 | +1.4 | +2.4 | +0.1 | +0.8 | −3.5 | −2.6 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | −0.2 | +2.6 | +2.8 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −1.0 | −0.8 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.1 | −2.0 | −0.1 | −2.1 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −0.2 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −1.1 | −0.8 |
| All shots | +1.0 | +0.3 | +3.1 | +4.4 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | −6.7 | −8.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Danielle Collins | Katerina Siniakova | Net, Danielle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.1 | −6.8 | +7.9 | |
| 2 | +3.2 | −1.4 | +4.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Danielle Collins serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 80% | 21% 75% | 26% 100% |
| 2 | 57% 65% | 13% 100% | 30% 56% |
Within sets +0.34 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Katerina Siniakova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% 33% | 29% 40% | 35% 50% |
| 2 | 33% 50% | 38% 44% | 29% 57% |
Within sets −1.51 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Danielle Collins
2.4 points left on the table across 142 shots 1.70 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH down the line rates higher · 0.13 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH crosscourt ×4; BH down the line rates higher · 0.11 pts
Katerina Siniakova
3.4 points left on the table across 148 shots 2.31 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return +1: drop shot to your forehand side hit FH drop shot down the line ×1; FH drop shot crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts