Roland Garros · R128 · Clay · 27 May 2024
Thiago Seyboth Wild v Gael Monfils
100–111 in points · Gael Monfils won
Why it went the way it did
Gael Monfils won 7.0 more points than Thiago Seyboth Wild relative to what the serve alone predicted. Thiago Seyboth Wild's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.4, net execution −2.2, forehand execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Thiago Seyboth Wild | Gael Monfils | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | −0.3 | −1.1 | −1.0 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +0.1 | +1.1 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.9 |
| Return | −0.3 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.2 | +0.6 | −0.3 | ±0.0 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +4.4 | −2.1 | +2.3 | −0.9 | +3.6 | +1.6 | +4.3 |
| Backhand | −0.7 | +0.2 | +2.9 | +2.4 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +3.2 | +3.6 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.4 | −1.2 | −3.8 | −0.1 | −2.7 | −1.1 | −3.9 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.5 | −2.2 | −1.9 | +0.7 | +0.3 | −0.7 | +0.3 |
| Touch | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.9 | +1.3 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −1.0 | +2.4 | −2.6 | −1.1 | +0.1 | +2.9 | +2.9 | +5.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Thiago Seyboth Wild | Gael Monfils | Net, Thiago | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.2 | +2.5 | −4.6 | |
| 2 | +2.6 | −1.9 | +4.5 | |
| 3 | −1.7 | +0.2 | −1.9 | |
| 4 | +0.1 | +5.2 | −5.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Thiago Seyboth Wild serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 58% | – | 45% 50% |
| 2 | 57% 53% | – | 43% 77% |
| 3 | 57% 62% | 4% 0% | 39% 44% |
| 4 | 65% 54% | – | 35% 77% |
Set to set +0.80 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.38 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Gael Monfils serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 62% 92% | – | 38% 50% |
| 2 | 31% 25% | – | 69% 56% |
| 3 | 36% 70% | – | 64% 56% |
| 4 | 54% 92% | – | 46% 73% |
Set to set +0.57 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.56 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Thiago Seyboth Wild
13.2 points left on the table across 440 shots 3.00 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×9; FH inside-in rates higher · 1.47 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×8; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.64 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×14; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.58 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×15; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.58 pts
Gael Monfils
11.9 points left on the table across 443 shots 2.69 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×7; FH inside-in rates higher · 1.14 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×14; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts