Queens Club · R32 · Grass · 18 Jun 2024
Mariano Navone v Jack Draper
34–59 in points · Jack Draper won
Why it went the way it did
Jack Draper won 16.0 more points than Mariano Navone relative to what the serve alone predicted. Mariano Navone's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.8, slice shot selection −1.6, serve 2nd execution −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Mariano Navone | Jack Draper | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +1.0 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +3.8 | +3.9 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +2.5 | +2.5 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.8 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +4.5 | +4.0 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +0.4 | −2.8 | −2.4 | +0.4 | +0.6 | −2.6 | −1.6 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | −0.4 | −1.1 | −1.7 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| Slice | −0.5 | −1.6 | −1.3 | −3.4 | −0.1 | −1.2 | +0.3 | −0.9 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +1.0 | +1.2 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 |
| All shots | −0.3 | −1.7 | −5.0 | −7.1 | +0.5 | −0.7 | +9.2 | +8.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Mariano Navone | Jack Draper | Net, Mariano | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.6 | +3.0 | −6.7 | |
| 2 | −3.4 | +5.9 | −9.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Mariano Navone serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 36% | – | 53% 69% |
| 2 | 33% 67% | 4% 0% | 63% 47% |
Set to set +1.95 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.16 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jack Draper serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 70% | – | 50% 90% |
| 2 | 25% 100% | – | 75% 100% |
Within sets +1.04 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Mariano Navone
3.7 points left on the table across 94 shots 3.94 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×2; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
Jack Draper
2.5 points left on the table across 107 shots 2.34 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×2; BH down the line rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts