RallyIQ

ITF Otocec · F · Clay · 25 Jun 2024

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva v Anouk Koevermans

114–108 in points · Anouk Koevermans won

Why it went the way it did

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva won 2.7 more points than Anouk Koevermans relative to what the serve alone predicted. Anouk Koevermans's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.9, slice shot selection −2.8, touch execution −2.6.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

ShotVictoria Jimenez KasintsevaAnouk Koevermans
DirSelExecTotalDirSelExecTotal
Serve 1st −0.3 ±0.0 +2.1 +1.9 −0.8 ±0.0 +1.2 +0.4
Serve 2nd ±0.0 ±0.0 −0.4 −0.4 ±0.0 ±0.0 +0.6 +0.6
Return −0.3 +1.1 +2.4 +3.2 −0.4 +1.4 +4.8 +5.7
Forehand +4.1 +6.0 +11.2 +21.3 +2.0 +8.9 −2.9 +8.0
Backhand +1.2 +1.6 −0.9 +1.9 +0.9 +2.2 +6.4 +9.5
Slice −0.1 −3.1 −0.9 −4.2 −0.1 −2.8 −0.3 −3.2
Net +0.1 ±0.0 −0.4 −0.3 +0.1 +0.4 −0.1 +0.4
Touch −0.2 −2.2 −0.1 −2.5 −0.3 −0.2 −2.6 −3.1
Other ±0.0 ±0.0 ±0.0 ±0.0 ±0.0 −0.1 ±0.0 −0.1
All shots +4.5+3.3 +13.0+20.9 +1.3+9.8 +7.1+18.2

Set by set

SetVictoria Jimenez KasintsevaAnouk KoevermansNet, Victoria
1+7.5+0.4 +7.1
2+4.0+6.7 −2.7
3+9.3+11.1 −1.8

Adaptation

First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva serving

SetWideBodyT
1 46% 64% 25% 67% 29% 71%
2 45% 45% 32% 57% 23% 50%
3 43% 60% 26% 50% 30% 36%

Set to set −0.24 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets +0.21 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Anouk Koevermans serving

SetWideBodyT
1 38% 30% 31% 25% 31% 63%
2 31% 50% 47% 60% 22% 57%
3 30% 60% 40% 50% 30% 53%

Set to set +2.49 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets +0.28 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

11.5 points left on the table across 668 shots 1.72 per 100 shots

  1. Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-out rates higher · 1.08 pts
  2. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×23; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.99 pts
  3. Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
  4. Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts

Anouk Koevermans

15.1 points left on the table across 667 shots 2.27 per 100 shots

  1. Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×21; BH crosscourt rates higher · 1.10 pts
  2. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×23; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.99 pts
  3. Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.77 pts
  4. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.53 pts