W50 Palma Del Rio · R16 · Hard · 26 Jun 2024
Linda Klimovicova v Madison Sieg
68–57 in points · Linda Klimovicova won
Why it went the way it did
Linda Klimovicova won 5.6 more points than Madison Sieg relative to what the serve alone predicted. Madison Sieg's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.7, return shot selection −0.6, forehand direction choices −0.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Linda Klimovicova | Madison Sieg | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −1.0 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +2.0 | +2.2 | −0.3 | −0.6 | +0.5 | −0.4 |
| Forehand | +0.9 | +2.8 | +11.8 | +15.5 | −0.5 | +3.6 | +6.6 | +9.7 |
| Backhand | +0.5 | +1.4 | +1.7 | +3.6 | ±0.0 | +1.9 | +8.1 | +9.9 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.6 | +1.2 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −3.7 | ±0.0 | −3.8 |
| Net | +0.3 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.5 |
| All shots | +1.5 | +2.9 | +16.9 | +21.3 | −1.2 | +1.0 | +15.9 | +15.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Linda Klimovicova | Madison Sieg | Net, Linda | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +11.2 | +11.5 | −0.3 | |
| 2 | +10.1 | +4.2 | +5.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Linda Klimovicova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 56% | 30% 50% | 25% 50% |
| 2 | 50% 82% | 23% 40% | 27% 83% |
Set to set −0.20 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.48 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Madison Sieg serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 73% | 21% 33% | 41% 42% |
| 2 | 38% 46% | 44% 47% | 18% 67% |
Set to set −0.29 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.11 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Linda Klimovicova
6.2 points left on the table across 328 shots 1.90 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return +1: drop shot to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
Madison Sieg
9.4 points left on the table across 331 shots 2.83 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×21; FH crosscourt rates higher · 1.14 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.55 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts