W50 Palma Del Rio · QF · Hard · 28 Jun 2024
Nahia Berecoechea v Leonie Kung
51–68 in points · Leonie Kung won
Why it went the way it did
Leonie Kung won 8.2 more points than Nahia Berecoechea relative to what the serve alone predicted. Nahia Berecoechea's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −1.3, serve 2nd execution −0.9, touch execution −0.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Nahia Berecoechea | Leonie Kung | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +1.6 | +2.4 | +0.4 | +0.7 | +3.2 | +4.3 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +2.7 | +5.2 | +8.3 | +0.3 | +1.8 | +6.1 | +8.1 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +2.0 | +1.2 | +3.4 | +0.2 | +1.9 | +3.7 | +5.9 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.3 | −0.8 | +0.2 | −1.4 | −0.3 | −1.5 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.9 | +1.1 | +2.2 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 | +0.2 | +0.2 | −1.1 | −0.7 |
| All shots | +0.7 | +5.4 | +5.0 | +11.2 | +1.4 | +4.1 | +13.9 | +19.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Nahia Berecoechea | Leonie Kung | Net, Nahia | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +6.8 | +8.8 | −2.0 | |
| 2 | +4.4 | +10.6 | −6.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Nahia Berecoechea serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% 56% | 22% 38% | 30% 36% |
| 2 | 66% 58% | 17% 40% | 17% 40% |
Set to set +1.71 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.14 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Leonie Kung serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 77% 43% | 13% 50% | 10% 100% |
| 2 | 50% 90% | 35% 71% | 15% 67% |
Set to set +2.07 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.27 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Nahia Berecoechea
7.1 points left on the table across 337 shots 2.09 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH down the line rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
Leonie Kung
7.0 points left on the table across 333 shots 2.11 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.30 pts