Wimbledon · R128 · Grass · 2 Jul 2024
Alejandro Moro Canas v Jacob Fearnley
110–126 in points · Jacob Fearnley won
Why it went the way it did
Jacob Fearnley won 11.3 more points than Alejandro Moro Canas relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alejandro Moro Canas's biggest leaks: backhand execution −6.7, serve 1st execution −4.0, slice shot selection −3.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Alejandro Moro Canas | Jacob Fearnley | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −4.0 | −4.8 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −2.3 | −2.6 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | −0.1 | +1.2 | +1.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.6 |
| Return | −0.2 | −1.2 | −2.8 | −4.1 | +0.4 | −0.2 | −6.2 | −5.9 |
| Forehand | −1.2 | +1.8 | +1.1 | +1.8 | +0.2 | +3.4 | +0.3 | +3.9 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | +0.5 | −6.7 | −6.6 | +0.1 | +1.3 | −0.4 | +1.0 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −3.7 | −0.2 | −4.0 | +0.4 | −3.2 | −1.5 | −4.2 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +0.5 | +0.2 | +2.5 | +3.1 |
| Touch | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | +0.3 | −0.5 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.2 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −3.0 | −2.6 | −11.5 | −17.1 | +1.4 | +0.5 | −7.7 | −5.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Alejandro Moro Canas | Jacob Fearnley | Net, Alejandro | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.4 | −0.8 | −3.6 | |
| 2 | −4.6 | −2.0 | −2.7 | |
| 3 | −8.1 | −3.1 | −5.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Alejandro Moro Canas serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26% 70% | 13% 80% | 62% 58% |
| 2 | 26% 63% | 16% 60% | 58% 67% |
| 3 | 36% 62% | 29% 65% | 36% 71% |
Set to set +1.29 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.26 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jacob Fearnley serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% 62% | 14% 60% | 49% 88% |
| 2 | 26% 43% | 15% 100% | 59% 81% |
| 3 | 41% 72% | 11% 100% | 48% 76% |
Set to set −0.49 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.17 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Alejandro Moro Canas
11.8 points left on the table across 362 shots 3.25 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×13; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH slice down the line ×4; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
Jacob Fearnley
8.5 points left on the table across 385 shots 2.20 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×8; FH through the middle rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts