Wimbledon · R128 · Grass · 2 Jul 2024
Mackenzie Mcdonald v Emil Ruusuvuori
180–172 in points · Emil Ruusuvuori won
Why it went the way it did
Mackenzie Mcdonald won 6.0 more points than Emil Ruusuvuori relative to what the serve alone predicted. Emil Ruusuvuori's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.7, serve 1st direction choices −0.6, touch execution −0.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Mackenzie Mcdonald | Emil Ruusuvuori | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.5 | −0.3 | +0.7 | +0.9 | −0.6 | −0.2 | +1.2 | +0.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +1.9 | +1.8 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| Return | −0.9 | +2.4 | +4.4 | +5.9 | +0.3 | +2.9 | −0.3 | +2.9 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +3.9 | +6.4 | +10.4 | −0.5 | +3.9 | +0.5 | +3.9 |
| Backhand | −1.1 | +0.2 | −1.8 | −2.7 | −0.3 | +0.8 | +0.8 | +1.2 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −2.6 | −0.9 | −3.5 | ±0.0 | −2.7 | +1.5 | −1.2 |
| Net | +0.4 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.8 | +1.2 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.5 | −0.8 |
| All shots | −1.0 | +4.0 | +10.7 | +13.7 | −1.1 | +4.5 | +4.3 | +7.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Mackenzie Mcdonald | Emil Ruusuvuori | Net, Mackenzie | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.5 | +1.9 | +1.6 | |
| 2 | +1.8 | −1.5 | +3.3 | |
| 3 | +2.7 | −2.3 | +5.0 | |
| 4 | +3.9 | +5.2 | −1.3 | |
| 5 | +1.8 | +4.5 | −2.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Mackenzie Mcdonald serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 56% | 5% 100% | 55% 64% |
| 2 | 52% 64% | – | 48% 92% |
| 3 | 32% 73% | – | 68% 83% |
| 4 | 34% 71% | 5% 0% | 61% 64% |
| 5 | 43% 58% | 7% 100% | 50% 57% |
Set to set +0.10 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.26 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Emil Ruusuvuori serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% 41% | 15% 50% | 53% 75% |
| 2 | 41% 58% | 7% 100% | 52% 67% |
| 3 | 26% 56% | 26% 78% | 47% 63% |
| 4 | 40% 59% | 19% 63% | 40% 76% |
| 5 | 46% 82% | 4% 100% | 50% 58% |
Set to set −0.84 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.87 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Mackenzie Mcdonald
16.3 points left on the table across 599 shots 2.71 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.74 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×18; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.70 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×15; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.63 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×8; FH through the middle rates higher · 0.57 pts
Emil Ruusuvuori
15.4 points left on the table across 620 shots 2.49 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×8; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.76 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×12; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.61 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×12; FH through the middle rates higher · 0.49 pts