Wimbledon · R16 · Grass · 7 Jul 2024
Emma Raducanu v Lulu Sun
95–111 in points · Lulu Sun won
Why it went the way it did
Lulu Sun won 8.4 more points than Emma Raducanu relative to what the serve alone predicted. Emma Raducanu's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −4.5, net execution −0.8, return shot selection −0.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Emma Raducanu | Lulu Sun | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.7 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −2.4 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.3 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.9 |
| Return | +0.4 | −0.5 | +1.8 | +1.7 | +0.5 | +1.6 | +2.7 | +4.8 |
| Forehand | +0.7 | +2.2 | +7.0 | +9.9 | +0.9 | +4.1 | +6.6 | +11.7 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +0.7 | +2.6 | +3.0 | +0.8 | +1.7 | −1.5 | +1.0 |
| Slice | +0.4 | −4.5 | −0.4 | −4.5 | ±0.0 | −2.0 | +1.7 | −0.3 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.9 | +0.3 | +1.9 | +1.6 | +3.8 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 | +1.0 |
| All shots | +1.3 | −2.1 | +12.8 | +12.1 | +1.8 | +7.8 | +10.8 | +20.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Emma Raducanu | Lulu Sun | Net, Emma | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.5 | +4.9 | −5.4 | |
| 2 | +8.6 | +9.0 | −0.3 | |
| 3 | +4.0 | +6.6 | −2.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Emma Raducanu serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% 47% | 19% 20% | 26% 29% |
| 2 | 41% 58% | 15% 57% | 43% 70% |
| 3 | 48% 64% | 17% 20% | 34% 50% |
Set to set +0.69 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.03 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Lulu Sun serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% 63% | 46% 46% | 25% 71% |
| 2 | 31% 62% | 29% 67% | 40% 65% |
| 3 | 25% 29% | 29% 75% | 46% 69% |
Set to set +0.66 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.49 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Emma Raducanu
8.0 points left on the table across 372 shots 2.15 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH down the line rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
Lulu Sun
8.6 points left on the table across 400 shots 2.14 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×12; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.97 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts