Newport · SF · Grass · 20 Jul 2024
Alex Michelsen v Reilly Opelka
57–32 in points · Alex Michelsen won
Why it went the way it did
Alex Michelsen won 13.7 more points than Reilly Opelka relative to what the serve alone predicted. Reilly Opelka's biggest leaks: backhand execution −4.0, return execution −2.5, forehand execution −2.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Alex Michelsen | Reilly Opelka | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.4 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +1.2 | +1.3 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +1.8 | +2.2 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −2.5 | −2.0 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +0.7 | −0.7 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | −2.4 | −1.9 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.6 | +1.2 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −4.0 | −3.8 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.6 | −1.0 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.7 | +1.8 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.1 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.2 | −0.5 |
| All shots | −0.3 | +1.6 | +3.8 | +5.1 | +0.3 | +0.3 | −9.1 | −8.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Alex Michelsen | Reilly Opelka | Net, Alex | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.3 | −4.0 | +2.7 | |
| 2 | +6.4 | −4.6 | +11.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Alex Michelsen serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 58% | 22% 83% | 33% 67% |
| 2 | 57% 88% | 36% 80% | 7% 100% |
Within sets −2.54 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Reilly Opelka serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 73% | 9% 0% | 41% 44% |
| 2 | 58% 53% | 15% 0% | 27% 14% |
Within sets −2.49 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Alex Michelsen
3.2 points left on the table across 113 shots 2.86 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Reilly Opelka
3.1 points left on the table across 124 shots 2.54 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH slice down the line + approach ×1; FH slice crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH down the line ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts