Prague · F · Clay · 26 Jul 2024
Magda Linette v Magdalena Frech
61–42 in points · Magda Linette won
Why it went the way it did
Magda Linette won 9.6 more points than Magdalena Frech relative to what the serve alone predicted. Magdalena Frech's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.7, touch shot selection −1.3, slice shot selection −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Magda Linette | Magdalena Frech | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.8 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.3 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.4 | −0.1 | +1.5 | +1.8 |
| Forehand | +0.7 | +1.5 | +3.9 | +6.2 | +0.5 | +1.2 | −2.7 | −0.9 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.2 | +2.4 | +2.8 | +0.3 | +1.0 | −0.1 | +1.1 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.4 | −0.8 | −2.3 | +0.2 | −1.1 | −0.6 | −1.5 |
| Net | +0.4 | +0.8 | +1.2 | +2.4 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.6 | −0.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.4 | −1.1 | −0.2 | −1.3 | +0.3 | −1.2 |
| All shots | +1.7 | +0.8 | +5.9 | +8.5 | +1.1 | −0.1 | −2.1 | −1.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Magda Linette | Magdalena Frech | Net, Magda | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.7 | −0.3 | +5.0 | |
| 2 | +3.7 | −0.8 | +4.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Magda Linette serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 86% | 5% 0% | 62% 77% |
| 2 | 47% 71% | 7% 50% | 47% 57% |
Within sets +1.07 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Magdalena Frech serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% 64% | 20% 33% | 43% 54% |
| 2 | 36% 50% | 23% 40% | 41% 44% |
Set to set −0.84 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.57 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Magda Linette
3.3 points left on the table across 198 shots 1.68 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob down the line ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
Magdalena Frech
3.8 points left on the table across 192 shots 1.99 per 100 shots
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH lob through the middle ×1; FH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts