Washington · R32 · Hard · 31 Jul 2024
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard v Emil Ruusuvuori
86–83 in points · Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard won
Why it went the way it did
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard won 0.6 more points than Emil Ruusuvuori relative to what the serve alone predicted. Emil Ruusuvuori's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.1, slice shot selection −0.8, touch execution −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | Emil Ruusuvuori | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | +0.3 | +3.5 | +3.6 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −1.1 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.3 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.8 |
| Return | −0.3 | −0.2 | −3.6 | −4.1 | −0.2 | +0.9 | −0.2 | +0.6 |
| Forehand | −0.6 | +1.4 | −3.3 | −2.5 | +0.4 | +1.6 | −2.1 | −0.1 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.8 | −0.2 | +0.7 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +0.7 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.4 | +0.7 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −0.7 | −1.7 |
| Net | +0.2 | −0.2 | +0.4 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.6 |
| Touch | +0.2 | −0.5 | −0.3 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.8 | −1.3 |
| All shots | −0.5 | +0.6 | −2.6 | −2.4 | +0.1 | +1.1 | −4.3 | −3.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | Emil Ruusuvuori | Net, Giovanni | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.4 | −1.5 | −0.9 | |
| 2 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | +1.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 81% | 15% 71% | 42% 55% |
| 2 | 67% 86% | 9% 67% | 24% 50% |
Set to set +3.50 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.89 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Emil Ruusuvuori serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 65% | 14% 67% | 45% 79% |
| 2 | 37% 50% | 19% 75% | 44% 84% |
Set to set −0.69 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.82 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
6.1 points left on the table across 206 shots 2.95 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.22 pts
Emil Ruusuvuori
4.9 points left on the table across 190 shots 2.60 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob through the middle ×2; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return +1: drop shot to your forehand side hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley down the line rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return +1: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.17 pts