Canada Masters · Q1 · Hard · 4 Aug 2024
Liam Draxl v Borna Coric
51–64 in points · Borna Coric won
Why it went the way it did
Borna Coric won 6.3 more points than Liam Draxl relative to what the serve alone predicted. Liam Draxl's biggest leaks: return execution −2.4, slice shot selection −2.0, serve 1st execution −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Liam Draxl | Borna Coric | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | +0.1 | −1.8 | −2.0 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −1.8 | −1.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.4 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| Return | −0.2 | −0.5 | −2.4 | −3.1 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.3 | +0.7 |
| Forehand | −0.7 | +2.5 | +0.6 | +2.4 | +0.4 | +1.9 | +2.2 | +4.5 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | +0.7 | −0.5 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +1.1 | −0.6 | +0.6 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.0 | +1.6 | −0.4 | +0.1 | −0.9 | −0.3 | −1.1 |
| Net | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +1.3 | +0.3 | +0.1 | −0.3 | +0.1 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 |
| All shots | −1.0 | +1.1 | −2.9 | −2.8 | +1.1 | +2.5 | ±0.0 | +3.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Liam Draxl | Borna Coric | Net, Liam | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.4 | +2.5 | −2.8 | |
| 2 | −2.4 | +1.1 | −3.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Liam Draxl serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% 70% | 15% 80% | 24% 25% |
| 2 | 50% 50% | 17% 25% | 33% 63% |
Set to set −1.78 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.73 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Borna Coric serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 70% | 8% 0% | 50% 83% |
| 2 | 47% 56% | 6% 100% | 47% 69% |
Within sets −1.16 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Liam Draxl
6.3 points left on the table across 222 shots 2.84 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Borna Coric
4.2 points left on the table across 228 shots 1.85 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts