Canada Masters · SF · Hard · 11 Aug 2024
Matteo Arnaldi v Andrey Rublev
45–60 in points · Andrey Rublev won
Why it went the way it did
Andrey Rublev won 7.6 more points than Matteo Arnaldi relative to what the serve alone predicted. Matteo Arnaldi's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −5.3, backhand execution −3.1, touch execution −0.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Matteo Arnaldi | Andrey Rublev | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | −0.1 | +1.9 | +2.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.6 | +1.5 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.6 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.3 | +2.1 | +1.7 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +1.2 | +1.6 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +0.7 | +0.5 | +1.3 | +0.9 | +1.8 | −0.4 | +2.3 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −3.1 | −2.8 | −0.2 | −0.1 | +2.3 | +2.0 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −5.3 | +1.8 | −3.5 | −0.1 | −2.0 | +0.4 | −1.7 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.4 | −0.3 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.9 | −0.9 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.5 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.2 | −4.0 | +2.1 | −1.8 | +0.9 | −0.1 | +5.1 | +5.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Matteo Arnaldi | Andrey Rublev | Net, Matteo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.2 | +1.8 | −2.0 | |
| 2 | −1.6 | +4.1 | −5.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Matteo Arnaldi serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 83% | 7% 50% | 48% 54% |
| 2 | 54% 43% | 4% 100% | 42% 55% |
Within sets −0.92 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Andrey Rublev serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% 53% | – | 44% 100% |
| 2 | 48% 75% | – | 52% 69% |
Within sets +0.92 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Matteo Arnaldi
5.5 points left on the table across 188 shots 2.92 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH down the line rates higher · 0.53 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×7; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
Andrey Rublev
4.5 points left on the table across 186 shots 2.40 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH down the line rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash inside-in rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts