US Open · R128 · Hard · 26 Aug 2024
Lorenzo Musetti v Reilly Opelka
134–115 in points · Lorenzo Musetti won
Why it went the way it did
Lorenzo Musetti won 12.6 more points than Reilly Opelka relative to what the serve alone predicted. Reilly Opelka's biggest leaks: return execution −8.4, backhand execution −6.8, forehand execution −6.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Lorenzo Musetti | Reilly Opelka | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.2 | −4.6 | −4.7 | −0.2 | +0.3 | +3.2 | +3.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −0.8 | +0.3 | +1.8 | −2.3 | −0.3 |
| Return | −1.1 | −0.1 | −2.4 | −3.5 | +0.1 | +1.3 | −8.4 | −7.0 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +1.1 | +0.9 | +2.2 | ±0.0 | +2.4 | −6.0 | −3.6 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | +1.0 | +0.5 | +1.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −6.8 | −6.6 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −3.8 | −1.1 | −4.8 | +0.1 | −1.5 | −3.1 | −4.4 |
| Net | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.5 | −1.2 | −0.7 | −3.1 | −5.0 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.3 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −1.2 | −2.6 | −7.2 | −11.0 | −0.9 | +3.7 | −26.4 | −23.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Lorenzo Musetti | Reilly Opelka | Net, Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.8 | −11.5 | +5.7 | |
| 2 | −7.0 | +0.3 | −7.2 | |
| 3 | +3.0 | −4.6 | +7.7 | |
| 4 | −1.3 | −7.8 | +6.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Lorenzo Musetti serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 76% | 6% 100% | 47% 76% |
| 2 | 42% 36% | 12% 0% | 46% 67% |
| 3 | 53% 80% | 5% 100% | 42% 88% |
| 4 | 39% 62% | 9% 67% | 52% 76% |
Set to set +0.39 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.27 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Reilly Opelka serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 57% | 14% 57% | 41% 71% |
| 2 | 71% 73% | 5% 0% | 24% 100% |
| 3 | 25% 40% | 10% 0% | 65% 54% |
| 4 | 51% 45% | 19% 50% | 30% 69% |
Set to set +0.32 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.07 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Lorenzo Musetti
9.0 points left on the table across 248 shots 3.63 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH down the line rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.28 pts
Reilly Opelka
8.4 points left on the table across 274 shots 3.05 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: slice to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.67 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts