US Open · R128 · Hard · 26 Aug 2024
Taylor Fritz v Camilo Ugo Carabelli
93–62 in points · Taylor Fritz won
Why it went the way it did
Taylor Fritz won 15.9 more points than Camilo Ugo Carabelli relative to what the serve alone predicted. Camilo Ugo Carabelli's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −4.7, serve 1st execution −4.3, return execution −3.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Taylor Fritz | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.1 | −4.3 | −5.2 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −2.0 | −2.1 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.8 | −0.9 | −0.3 | −0.5 | −0.3 | −3.7 | −4.5 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.7 | −1.4 | +0.5 | −1.1 | +2.0 | −2.0 | −1.1 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −0.3 | +0.1 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.2 | −0.9 | +0.4 | −4.7 | −0.4 | −4.8 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.1 | −1.0 | −1.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −0.3 | +0.5 | −0.1 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.2 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.3 |
| All shots | +0.5 | +1.8 | −4.0 | −1.7 | −2.5 | −3.5 | −11.7 | −17.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Taylor Fritz | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Net, Taylor | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.6 | −7.8 | +4.2 | |
| 2 | +0.9 | −3.8 | +4.7 | |
| 3 | +1.0 | −6.0 | +6.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Taylor Fritz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 64% | 3% 100% | 53% 59% |
| 2 | 60% 67% | 4% 0% | 36% 78% |
| 3 | 37% 86% | – | 63% 83% |
Set to set +1.62 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.99 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Camilo Ugo Carabelli serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8% 33% | 30% 64% | 62% 48% |
| 2 | 40% 50% | 30% 50% | 30% 33% |
| 3 | 9% 50% | 23% 20% | 68% 60% |
Set to set −1.17 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.47 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Taylor Fritz
5.7 points left on the table across 288 shots 1.98 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your middle, opponent at net, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
8.8 points left on the table across 292 shots 3.02 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.55 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts