US Open · R128 · Hard · 27 Aug 2024
Alexa Noel v Sara Sorribes Tormo
40–63 in points · Sara Sorribes Tormo won
Why it went the way it did
Sara Sorribes Tormo won 12.6 more points than Alexa Noel relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alexa Noel's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −9.8, forehand execution −3.1, serve 1st execution −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Alexa Noel | Sara Sorribes Tormo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | +0.1 | −1.2 | −1.4 | −1.0 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −1.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| Return | −0.2 | −0.6 | −0.3 | −1.1 | −0.2 | +0.5 | +3.9 | +4.1 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +4.2 | −3.1 | +1.0 | +0.2 | +4.1 | +0.2 | +4.4 |
| Backhand | −0.7 | +1.2 | −0.7 | −0.2 | −0.6 | +1.2 | +2.9 | +3.5 |
| Slice | +1.0 | −9.8 | +2.5 | −6.3 | ±0.0 | −3.7 | −0.7 | −4.4 |
| Net | +0.3 | −0.1 | +2.2 | +2.3 | −0.1 | +0.5 | −0.9 | −0.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.9 | +0.7 |
| All shots | −0.1 | −5.8 | −0.2 | −6.1 | −1.7 | +2.5 | +5.8 | +6.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Alexa Noel | Sara Sorribes Tormo | Net, Alexa | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.8 | +4.4 | −8.2 | |
| 2 | −2.3 | +2.2 | −4.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Alexa Noel serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 44% | 26% 17% | 35% 13% |
| 2 | 47% 41% | 36% 62% | 17% 83% |
Within sets +0.88 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Sara Sorribes Tormo serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% 75% | 62% 63% | 8% 0% |
| 2 | 27% 63% | 67% 75% | 7% 50% |
Within sets +0.39 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Alexa Noel
9.2 points left on the table across 324 shots 2.84 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.57 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
Sara Sorribes Tormo
9.5 points left on the table across 320 shots 2.97 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×11; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.58 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×11; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.34 pts