US Open · R128 · Hard · 27 Aug 2024
Naomi Osaka v Jelena Ostapenko
61–39 in points · Naomi Osaka won
Why it went the way it did
Naomi Osaka won 10.4 more points than Jelena Ostapenko relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jelena Ostapenko's biggest leaks: return execution −3.1, backhand execution −1.9, serve 2nd execution −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Naomi Osaka | Jelena Ostapenko | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +2.4 | +2.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.3 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.6 | −1.9 | −1.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −3.1 | −3.1 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +0.3 | +2.7 | +3.4 | +0.3 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +1.0 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.3 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | −1.9 | −1.4 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.6 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +0.5 | +0.8 | +4.1 | +5.5 | +0.7 | +0.3 | −6.0 | −5.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Naomi Osaka | Jelena Ostapenko | Net, Naomi | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.2 | −2.8 | +5.0 | |
| 2 | +3.3 | −2.2 | +5.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Naomi Osaka serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 91% | 17% 100% | 35% 75% |
| 2 | 41% 73% | 22% 50% | 37% 80% |
Within sets −1.60 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jelena Ostapenko serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30% 86% | 13% 67% | 57% 54% |
| 2 | 35% 67% | 19% 20% | 46% 50% |
Within sets −0.07 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Naomi Osaka
1.7 points left on the table across 98 shots 1.71 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Return +1: slice to your middle hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.14 pts
Jelena Ostapenko
2.1 points left on the table across 115 shots 1.87 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.11 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×1; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.10 pts