US Open · R64 · Hard · 28 Aug 2024
Lorenzo Musetti v Miomir Kecmanovic
154–156 in points · Lorenzo Musetti won
Why it went the way it did
Miomir Kecmanovic won 0.7 more points than Lorenzo Musetti relative to what the serve alone predicted. Lorenzo Musetti's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −11.1, touch shot selection −3.2, return shot selection −3.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Lorenzo Musetti | Miomir Kecmanovic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.8 | −0.2 | −3.0 | −4.1 | −1.0 | −0.3 | −7.1 | −8.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.4 | −1.4 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −1.3 | −1.6 |
| Return | −0.4 | −3.1 | +0.8 | −2.6 | +0.3 | +0.7 | −1.1 | −0.2 |
| Forehand | −0.6 | +2.7 | −0.8 | +1.3 | +0.4 | +3.7 | −5.8 | −1.7 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +1.3 | +2.0 | +3.5 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | −2.0 | −1.4 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −11.1 | +1.0 | −10.2 | +0.3 | −3.7 | −0.4 | −3.8 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.4 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.5 | −0.4 | +0.1 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −3.2 | −0.7 | −4.0 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.6 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.3 |
| All shots | −2.0 | −13.3 | −2.2 | −17.4 | +0.4 | +1.0 | −18.1 | −16.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Lorenzo Musetti | Miomir Kecmanovic | Net, Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −7.7 | −4.0 | −3.7 | |
| 2 | −3.2 | −3.6 | +0.4 | |
| 3 | +0.7 | −5.7 | +6.4 | |
| 4 | −2.5 | +2.5 | −5.0 | |
| 5 | −4.8 | −5.9 | +1.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Lorenzo Musetti serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% 50% | 28% 57% | 40% 60% |
| 2 | 33% 80% | 20% 67% | 47% 64% |
| 3 | 44% 58% | 11% 100% | 44% 67% |
| 4 | 35% 50% | 26% 33% | 39% 33% |
| 5 | 45% 62% | 19% 67% | 36% 59% |
Set to set +0.12 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.09 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Miomir Kecmanovic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 63% | 29% 86% | 38% 67% |
| 2 | 31% 89% | 28% 63% | 41% 58% |
| 3 | 38% 47% | 15% 50% | 48% 53% |
| 4 | 26% 33% | 22% 40% | 52% 83% |
| 5 | 24% 60% | 17% 57% | 59% 58% |
Set to set +0.27 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.14 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Lorenzo Musetti
15.1 points left on the table across 555 shots 2.72 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×11; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.81 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×7; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.58 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×7; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
Miomir Kecmanovic
10.7 points left on the table across 548 shots 1.94 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts