US Open · R16 · Hard · 1 Sep 2024
Grigor Dimitrov v Andrey Rublev
153–151 in points · Grigor Dimitrov won
Why it went the way it did
Andrey Rublev won 5.2 more points than Grigor Dimitrov relative to what the serve alone predicted. Grigor Dimitrov's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −9.1, return shot selection −3.6, serve 2nd execution −3.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Grigor Dimitrov | Andrey Rublev | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.3 | −3.2 | −3.4 | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.5 | +0.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −3.5 | −3.6 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −3.2 | −3.3 |
| Return | −0.1 | −3.6 | −3.0 | −6.8 | +0.3 | +1.3 | −5.4 | −3.8 |
| Forehand | −0.8 | +3.4 | +4.2 | +6.7 | −1.3 | +2.4 | −7.6 | −6.6 |
| Backhand | −1.3 | +0.3 | −2.3 | −3.3 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −1.3 | −1.2 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −9.1 | −1.1 | −10.5 | −0.2 | −2.3 | +0.2 | −2.3 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.1 | −1.5 | −1.6 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.9 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −1.6 | −2.2 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −0.5 | −1.3 |
| Other | −0.2 | −0.4 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.8 |
| All shots | −2.8 | −10.3 | −12.0 | −25.1 | −1.8 | +0.1 | −18.2 | −19.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Grigor Dimitrov | Andrey Rublev | Net, Grigor | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −7.7 | −9.0 | +1.3 | |
| 2 | −3.0 | −5.0 | +2.0 | |
| 3 | −8.9 | +1.9 | −10.9 | |
| 4 | −4.9 | −3.8 | −1.2 | |
| 5 | −0.5 | −4.0 | +3.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Grigor Dimitrov serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 60% | 14% 67% | 50% 67% |
| 2 | 51% 73% | 5% 50% | 44% 63% |
| 3 | 48% 53% | 5% 0% | 48% 42% |
| 4 | 37% 100% | 11% 100% | 53% 50% |
| 5 | 41% 67% | 7% 50% | 52% 87% |
Set to set −0.56 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.04 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Andrey Rublev serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21% 80% | 8% 100% | 71% 47% |
| 2 | 42% 61% | 7% 67% | 51% 64% |
| 3 | 43% 100% | 14% 100% | 43% 67% |
| 4 | 43% 75% | 4% 100% | 54% 73% |
| 5 | 45% 60% | 9% 50% | 45% 70% |
Set to set +0.36 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.00 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Grigor Dimitrov
15.0 points left on the table across 515 shots 2.92 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×14; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 1.03 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×13; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×8; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH down the line rates higher · 0.53 pts
Andrey Rublev
12.2 points left on the table across 538 shots 2.28 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×17; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts