Beijing · R32 · Hard · 27 Sep 2024
Andrey Rublev v Pablo Carreno Busta
83–70 in points · Andrey Rublev won
Why it went the way it did
Andrey Rublev won 6.9 more points than Pablo Carreno Busta relative to what the serve alone predicted. Pablo Carreno Busta's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.5, net execution −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Andrey Rublev | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | +3.5 | +3.6 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +1.4 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +2.2 | +2.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +2.1 | +2.1 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.3 | +4.6 | +5.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +4.9 | +5.0 |
| Forehand | +0.8 | +1.3 | +3.1 | +5.2 | +0.8 | +0.9 | +0.7 | +2.3 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.3 | +3.1 | +3.3 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +1.6 | +2.1 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.0 | −0.5 | −2.5 | ±0.0 | −3.5 | +0.8 | −2.6 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.4 | −0.8 | −0.5 | +0.2 | +0.3 | −1.5 | −1.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.9 | ±0.0 | +15.3 | +16.2 | +1.3 | −1.8 | +9.8 | +9.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Andrey Rublev | Pablo Carreno Busta | Net, Andrey | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +9.7 | +0.5 | +9.2 | |
| 2 | +0.6 | +3.3 | −2.7 | |
| 3 | +5.9 | +5.4 | +0.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Andrey Rublev serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 83% | – | 57% 88% |
| 2 | 57% 65% | – | 43% 38% |
| 3 | 48% 73% | 6% 50% | 45% 71% |
Set to set +0.72 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.85 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Pablo Carreno Busta serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 40% | 5% 100% | 50% 27% |
| 2 | 59% 63% | – | 41% 62% |
| 3 | 58% 79% | 8% 50% | 33% 63% |
Set to set +0.56 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.45 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Andrey Rublev
5.1 points left on the table across 227 shots 2.26 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH down the line rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH slice through the middle ×2; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×2; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
Pablo Carreno Busta
4.9 points left on the table across 215 shots 2.28 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH down the line rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH slice through the middle ×2; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×4; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts