Beijing · F · Hard · 2 Oct 2024
Carlos Alcaraz v Jannik Sinner
132–120 in points · Carlos Alcaraz won
Why it went the way it did
Carlos Alcaraz won 6.9 more points than Jannik Sinner relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jannik Sinner's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −4.6, net execution −1.4, serve 1st execution −1.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Carlos Alcaraz | Jannik Sinner | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | +0.1 | +2.1 | +2.2 | +0.4 | −0.2 | −1.0 | −0.8 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | −0.1 | +1.5 | +1.3 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +2.0 | +1.9 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.4 | +8.1 | +8.7 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +7.7 | +8.2 |
| Forehand | +1.0 | +4.1 | +3.5 | +8.5 | −0.3 | +2.4 | +3.8 | +6.0 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.6 | −1.8 | −1.1 | +0.2 | +1.2 | −1.0 | +0.5 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −5.2 | −1.9 | −7.2 | +0.3 | −4.6 | +2.0 | −2.4 |
| Net | +0.3 | +1.5 | +3.1 | +4.9 | +0.2 | +0.3 | −1.4 | −0.9 |
| Touch | +0.2 | +0.2 | +1.6 | +2.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +1.5 | +1.6 | +16.2 | +19.3 | +0.9 | −0.5 | +12.0 | +12.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Carlos Alcaraz | Jannik Sinner | Net, Carlos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +5.5 | +4.0 | +1.5 | |
| 2 | +5.5 | +4.6 | +0.9 | |
| 3 | +8.3 | +3.9 | +4.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Carlos Alcaraz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% 63% | 7% 100% | 34% 64% |
| 2 | 61% 74% | 11% 60% | 27% 50% |
| 3 | 50% 68% | 16% 50% | 34% 69% |
Set to set +0.49 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.15 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jannik Sinner serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% 64% | 2% 100% | 40% 58% |
| 2 | 53% 63% | – | 47% 64% |
| 3 | 49% 60% | 2% 0% | 49% 56% |
Set to set −0.87 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.06 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Carlos Alcaraz
10.1 points left on the table across 430 shots 2.35 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×7; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.32 pts
Jannik Sinner
8.7 points left on the table across 406 shots 2.14 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH down the line rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts