Beijing · SF · Hard · 5 Oct 2024
Karolina Muchova v Qinwen Zheng
67–51 in points · Karolina Muchova won
Why it went the way it did
Karolina Muchova won 8.3 more points than Qinwen Zheng relative to what the serve alone predicted. Qinwen Zheng's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.7, backhand execution −2.7, serve 2nd execution −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Karolina Muchova | Qinwen Zheng | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +0.9 | +0.6 | +0.1 | −1.4 | −0.8 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.8 | −1.7 |
| Return | +0.2 | −0.9 | −0.3 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −0.5 | −0.2 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +0.6 | +1.3 | +2.2 | +0.4 | +1.3 | −4.7 | −3.0 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | +0.8 | −1.1 | −0.7 | +0.1 | +0.4 | −2.7 | −2.2 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.7 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.7 | −1.4 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.7 | −0.8 | +0.2 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| All shots | +0.5 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +1.6 | +2.0 | −12.3 | −8.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Karolina Muchova | Qinwen Zheng | Net, Karolina | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.6 | −2.2 | +1.5 | |
| 2 | +0.2 | −6.6 | +6.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Karolina Muchova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 70% 70% | 12% 25% | 18% 83% |
| 2 | 61% 86% | 22% 100% | 17% 50% |
Set to set −1.33 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.21 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Qinwen Zheng serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 73% | 5% 0% | 40% 63% |
| 2 | 78% 59% | – | 22% 44% |
Within sets +1.59 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Karolina Muchova
4.0 points left on the table across 143 shots 2.79 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
Qinwen Zheng
3.8 points left on the table across 152 shots 2.48 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts